Most NSW regions would benefit economically from the transition to net-zero emissions by 2050, according to a recent report.
The modelling report by the Centre of Policy Studies at Victoria University explores how 43,600 NSW jobs would be created due to a net-zero economy, and finds that many regional areas would experience the most benefit.
Comparing two approaches – business as usual (BAU) and a transition to net-zero emissions – the report outlines how the economy grows across all regions under each model.
However, if Australia transitions to net-zero emissions by 2050, 25 out of the 28 NSW regions would be economically better off.
Centre of Policy Studies Professor Philip Adams said committing to net-zero emissions would result in the national economy growing at an average of 2.56 per cent per annum, just 0.03 below a business-as-usual approach.
He said the modelling took a conservative approach, based on current technology, industries and government policy action, as well as using a price on carbon to incentivise the transition to net zero.
“The cost of Australia transitioning to net-zero emissions by 2050 has plummeted by 80 per cent in just eight years thanks to a rapid decline in the cost of renewable energy and electric vehicles, and the emergence of new green technologies,” Professor Adams said.
“Cutting greenhouse gas emissions is like buying an insurance policy. We incur a small decline in the growth in GDP in order to limit the potential impact of catastrophic climate change.”
The report outlines some of the regions that would economically benefit, including the Mid-North Coast, Riverina and Coffs Harbour regions.
The Hunter Valley region would grow with 33,000 new jobs under the net-zero transition by 2050 but would experience lower growth under a BAU approach.
Overall, 43,600 more NSW jobs would be created in NSW in a net-zero economy compared to BAU.
As a result of a net-zero transition, some specific sectors would largely benefit, including fishing and forestry, renewable energy generation, agriculture and manufacturing.
Comparatively, some employment and job sectors, including coal and gas production, would be worse off.
The Hunter Valley is considered the powerhouse of Australian mining, comprising 41 coal mines spread over more than 450km, and is home to the world’s biggest coal port, the Port of Newcastle.
According to the report, the Hunter Valley’s total employment rate in 2021 sits at 138,900. In a net-zero emissions by 2050 scenario, total employment would increase to 171,100. In a BAU scenario, total employment would increase to 193,300, a difference of 22,200 jobs.
Professor Adams said some regions like the Hunter Valley would need additional government support to help the region make the huge transition.
“We know which industries and regions will see lower growth, and with proper planning, resourcing and a long lead time, governments can invest in these regions to attract renewable energy industries, new green industries and invest in retraining and upskilling the workforce,” he said.
A study under way for a hydrogen hub in the Hunter is an example of this.
Meanwhile, protestors from the group Blockade Australia have been taking action at the Port of Newcastle, disrupting production and calling for an end to non-renewable energy sources.
Over the past week and a half, activists have staged various protests in and around the port, lying on railway tracks, climbing machinery and turning off coal mining equipment.
Seventeen of the protesters have been arrested and could face penalties of up to 25 years in prison.
Furious Deputy Premier Barnaby Joyce said the protestors had disrupted $60M worth of coal exports.
NSW Police formed Strike Force Tuohy to stop the protesters and increase security and surveillance along the rail corridor.
Despite this, Blockade Australia does not plan to relent.
Its 20th action took place yesterday, when protesters Jacinta and Kirsten entered the Port of Newcastle, disabled machinery and locked themselves to a ground-level structure.
“The problem is that our system is based on exponential growth that revolves around money and power, which is unjust and unequal,” Jacinta said.
“All life forms suffer because of the human actions of the corrupt and exploitative systems of our government and multinationals.
“I’ve come here to do direct actions because I feel it is one of the ways for me to stand up for what is right.”
Similarly, Zianna and Hannah abseiled down coal handling machinery on November 17 and hung there until removed by police. The port could not continue operations until they had been removed.
“We are getting in the way of Australia, stopping the machine that has set our homes on fire and drained our rivers, that promises mass starvation and water wars,” they said.
Hayley McMahon